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Monday, December 31, 2012

E-minis


Friday, December 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 December 2012

It took a week, But last week's e-mini flash crash proved to be the clue for current direction of prices. In fact  the end of trading in the futures closed under the flash crash.
SPX daily:
CPCE:
Sentiment is quite excessively bullish. All recent surveys, the NAAIM Managers, AAII, II, Market Vane, Hulbert, etc are very elevated.   The wave form and sentiment are very ripe for a minute [iii] down.

E-minis


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 26 December 2012

A small five waves down from the recent Minute [ii] peak.

There is no doubt that social mood long term is still very much trending negative. Congress - reflecting the ultimate expression for long term public consensus and mood - is at total gridlock.  When social mood was better, even in 2011, deals were able to be made. I don't know if a "fiscal cliff" deal will be made before the new year or not, but either way, things are rancorous and reflective of a very negative long term trend that is not anywhere near bottoming out.

In any event, there will be contraction eventually.  Either simple mathematics will force it or social mood will reign in the debt spending.  

Its taken 4 years since the 2009 low for Congress to catch up with the public in negative long term expression.  As Prechter likes to point out, Congress (or government in general) is that last group to be overtaken by mood. Its the ultimate consensus group after all.

So the fact that our representatives are finally expressing a dour mood means we are somewhere near a major turning point. And that would be negative.  Things can get out of control quickly when mood is sour at all levels of society. It finally seems the last consensus group - being the US government - is now in lockstep with a simmering society.




E-minis


Monday, December 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 December 2012

Not yet 5 waves down from the recent recovery high.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Friday, December 21, 2012

E-minis

I would suspect the PPT was busy last night.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 December 2012

CPCE ended today at .41. That's fairly extreme bullishness. And on the eve of the end of the world no less!

Via Sentiment Trader, (Subscription required to see their great sentiment data) AAII Bull ratio has rebounded quite significantly.  And on the eve of the end of the world no less.
USB:
GDOW. extreme overbought.

E-minis


Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 December 2012

If this is a second wave rally, then it has retraced about all it can. It counts well as a double zigzag.
A breadth thrust divergence exists at resistance both horizontal and the underside of the lower wedgeline:

E-minis


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 December 2012

There has been some significant movement in sentiment due to the rally. 

The best count for now is still a Minute [ii] double zigzag. 

Monday, December 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 17 December 2012

A small second wave?
Or we'll get wave c of (y) of a double zigzag are the top counts.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Friday, December 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 December 2012

It now counts well as five small waves down from the recent peak:
Hourly:
Revised NYAD count. I like this better.
Longer count:

BPSPX:

E-minis


Thursday, December 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 December 2012

The S&P futures counts best as an (a)(b)(c) up rather than an impulse move.
Yet we don't quite have a 5 wave move down yet on the Wilshire. We need a lower low.
In log scale, backtesting the broken lower wedgeline.

E-minis


Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 December 2012

If this is Minute [ii], then it should be about over. The retrace was well above 61.8%, Time factor has been ample and overly bearish sentiment has been shaken out more than sufficiently.

We have a decent double zigzag for Minute [ii] as the primary count and there are sufficient waves in place to consider it finished.
Wilshire 60:
CPC:
Finally some interesting movement in the 6 month rate chart, Interest rates will, of course, be the financial system's downfall as we are seeing in Europe.  The FED can influence stock prices, they can influence a lot of things, but they cannot influence it all at once. The market is simply too big.  Eventually it will all get out of hand.
A bearish setup in Breadth and long shooting star candle.

E-minis


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 December 2012

We'll stick with this squiggle count we have been going with lately and see where it takes us.
Negative divergence on breadth.

E-minis


Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 December 2012

Another late night renovating my house. Wow time has slipped by. Nothing much to add today anyway. Sentiment is not extreme in either direction the short term squiggles are a toss up.   For instance both "Smart Money" and "Dumb Money" on Sentiment Trader's site are both even at 50% and have been close for a while now.

It was stated that on a daily chart there would likely be a visible "three" wave from afar for Minute [ii].  Do we have that yet?  Probably not.  A solid break of 1400 is not good for bulls.
On the Wilshire 60 minute chart, there is a bit of negative divergence and the waves do not look impulsive over the last few days. Therefore we may get yet another pullback. However a break of the pivot at 14,510 is bearish and should indicate Minute [ii] is over.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 December 2012

Triangulating again at these support levels. Tweaking the squiggle count we have thus:

Its the ol' [W]-[X]-[Y] combination corrective with a triangle in the final position count:

E-minis